Weekly Investor Positioning Report 2025-01-19

This week, US Core CPI data exceeded expectations, alongside impressive earnings reports from US banks and European luxury stocks. Despite these strong fundamentals, the EUR/USD pair saw only a modest lift, ending the week up 0.26% after testing its 52-week low.

The chart above displays the rolling yearly Z-score for EUR/USD positioning, revealing pronounced investor pessimism and a clear downward trend in their overall positioning.

The table above summarizes the changes in EUR/USD positions across investor types and timeframes. Notably, hedge funds have increased their EUR/USD exposure over both the past month and the past week, and asset managers have also raised their positions this week. In contrast, retail investors continue to sell the into the bearish momentum.

We believe EUR/USD has the potential to reprice to the upside in the short-term, driven by the current bearish sentiment and below-average positioning among all investor types. However, over the longer term, fundamentals still favor the USD. This is because the US economy stands to benefit from stronger growth fueled by technological innovation, fiscal support, and tighter monetary policy.

Full Report:

Download the full report below. In the report you will find investor positioning insights for major equity indices, commodities such as gold, oil, gas, and silver, forex pairs and bitcoin.